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This hour’s clearest development is the tightening link between two narratives: more explicit allied resistance to joining any Hormuz reopening effort, and a visibly broader arc of military spillover around the core Iran-Israel crisis. European messaging sharpened from reluctance to clearer non-participation, with reports that the EU has no appetite to expand its naval mission and that Germany and the UK are pushing back on US demands. At the same time, fresh strike reporting widened the conflict picture beyond the Gulf itself: Hezbollah rocket and missile impacts in northern Israel, drone interception over western Baghdad, reports of drone engagement over civilian areas near Baghdad, and Pakistani airstrikes in Kabul added to the sense of a region under multi-theater stress. Market-sensitive framing remains centered on shipping risk and oil, with renewed emphasis that coalition formation is lagging while prices stay elevated. There are also early signs of pressure moving into domestic legitimacy and infrastructure narratives inside Iran, including banking disruption reports and commentary on anti-regime sentiment turning against expectations of outside rescue, though these are more fragmentary and politically contested. For decision-makers, the key signal is not one decisive battlefield turn but a worsening coordination gap between US aims, allied willingness, and a fast-expanding perimeter of instability.